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Share Share all options for: MH17 is the third plane shot down this week over Ukraine under mysterious circumstances.
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We do not know who shot down Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, which crashed in eastern Ukraine on Thursday. There is no concrete evidence, but reports center on pro-Russian rebels operating in the region for the past few months.
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It's not hard to see why: they are, after all, anti-government protesters attacking Ukrainian government forces. But it's more than that. The rebels shot down the planes first, although they were all military planes. And more recently, Ukrainian military planes in the area have been hit by missiles while flying at high altitude - suggesting, like MH17, that whoever shot them down had some dangerous military technology.
Local residents look at the wreckage of a Ukrainian military plane that was shot down in eastern Ukraine on Monday (DOMINIQUE FAGET/AFP/Getty Images)
Four Ukrainian military planes have been shot down since June. Two of these incidents seem to have definitely been caused by the rebels, clearly showing that they have the ability and willingness to shoot down the plane. But the other two were shot down at high altitude, like flight MH17, and it is not clear who was responsible.
On June 6, terrorists shot down a Ukrainian Air Force Antonov AN-30 surveillance plane - a twin-engine military aircraft typically made by Russia. It was near Slavyansk in eastern Ukraine. Ten days later, on June 16, terrorists shot down a large Ukrainian Air Force transport plane, an Il-76, killing all 49 people on board. the ship. The Il-76 is larger than the AN-30 and has four jet engines, a size larger than the Boeing 777 that was shot down on Thursday.
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But there is one "but" that makes these two cases very different from MH17 - the AN-30 and ILl-6 were shot down using MANPADS, which stands for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems, a small launcher that you carry in your pocket. shoulder. It can shoot up to 11,500 feet, while MH17 is flying at 33,000 feet. That's how it gets out of most MANPADS launches.
This is why people first questioned whether the rebels had the strength to shoot down a high-flying commercial airliner like MH17. But on Monday, July 14, another incident occurred, which was not noticed by many at that time. On that day, a Ukrainian Antonov AN-26 military transport plane was hit by a missile in the eastern part of Ukraine - at an altitude of 21,000 feet. This is much more than a shoulder system like MANPADS.
But the Ukrainian government did not blame Monday's shooting on separatist rebels: it suggested that the gun was likely fired from Russia, which borders Ukraine to the east. However, the Ukrainian rebels claimed responsibility, and Ukraine has not provided any public evidence that Russian troops were shot down.
The BBC's David Stern wrote at the time: "The allegation that the Russians shot down a Ukrainian plane could be a game-changer. If Russia really is targeting Ukrainian planes from inside its territory, an act of aggression of the highest degree." But Stern agreed that "the non-response of the Ukrainians will raise suspicions that their accusations are false - or show that the Ukrainian military is very no energy at all."
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The lack of a strong response in Ukraine or the provision of evidence to accuse Russia may explain why the shooting of Monday was not heard. On the one hand, Russia has thousands of troops - about 12,000 - on the border with eastern Ukraine, and Moscow actively supports the Ukrainian rebels in the east. On the other hand, firing missiles at Ukrainian planes on the border would also be a very impressive move for Russia.
Then, on Wednesday, a Ukrainian Sukhoi SU-25 fighter jet was shot down in eastern Ukraine, and the Ukrainian government made no bones about blaming Russia. "A plane of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation attacked a Su-25 plane of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which was carrying out operations on the territory of Ukraine," announced the representative of the government of Ukrainian Andrey Lysenko at a press conference.
The first few planes shot down in eastern Ukraine were shot down at high altitude and appeared to be insurgents carrying MANPADS on their shoulders. Although it is dangerous, it is not surprising: the eastern part of Ukraine is an open conflict zone, the rebels are firing on all the targets of the Ukrainian military. they have, and the MANPADS is enough of a basis for such unscrupulous people as the Ukrainian rebels in the east to operate.
But the technology to shoot down a high-altitude plane like MH17, or the high-altitude Ukrainian military plane that was shot down earlier this week, is more difficult. According to the researchers, the most likely tool is the Buk surface-to-air missile system, which is mainly made in Russia but is also used by the Ukrainian military. The Buk system has a maximum range of about 50,000 feet, but is more complex than a missile launcher. That may be why US officials say they believe the plane was likely shot down by the SA-11 system, the US name for the Buk.
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The Buk surface-to-air missile system is a "special system that requires a lot of radar and guided vehicles," according to the US Embassy in Kyiv. In other words, it's not a ragtag militia-style shoulder-fired rocket—it's a system that requires a lot of people and real training and resources to coordinate a lot of complex vehicle policies. Three vehicles are generally required to launch a Buk - the missile itself, a control vehicle and a radar vehicle - although some researchers research says that a single vehicle can operate independently.
Even with a week or two of Russian military training, it's hard to imagine a group of Ukrainian rebels walking into this system and knowing how to use it properly.
It is true that Ukrainian rebels seem to own the system, the Ukrainian military may have hijacked it. The rebels previously claimed to have the Buk system, according to a June 29 report from the media of the Rebel Donetsk People's Republic. However, it does not mean that they know how to use it.
All of this suggests that whoever shot down the other planes this week, at least one flying at high altitude behind the MANPADS, were official military forces or those receive strong training from the military on the air force. system
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It seems to narrow down the list of suspects. Perhaps the Ukrainian forces with this doctrine turned to the rebels. It is possible that the Ukrainian rebels have undergone extensive Russian training on Buk systems, which raises the question of why Russia is doing this training and what is the meaning of Moscow's conspiracy. in the attack. Or maybe the Ukrainian government was right about the first two attacks from Russian-sanctioned ground or air.
In any of these examples, it seems that whoever shot down MH17 may have thought they were shooting at another Ukrainian military plane, not realizing it was a civilian plane. And so far there is no concrete evidence to show that the Ukrainian rebels have been threatened, the Russian rebels, the Russian military, or anyone else. However, it is difficult to imagine an investigation into the crash of MH17 that will not result in an increase in the Ukrainian crisis, which was very serious before Thursday.
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